Last Day Of The Premier League Betting – Would you Gamble on Liverpool Finishing Above Everton?

Firstly, lets try to summarise the battles and the potential outcomes as best as we can..

3rd 4th and 5th Places In the Premier League

Arsenal, Spurs & Newcastle can all finish either 3rd 4th or 5th. Newcastle will only finish 3rd with a win and where Arsenal lose and Spurs lose or draw. Spurs will always finish behind Arsenal unless they take 2 more points than them on the day. A draw is not good enough for Arsenal to secure 3rd place if  Spurs win but it will secure them 4th on goal difference even if Newcastle win. (Following me so far?)

So…If Arsenal win or draw, Newcastle will take 4th spot from Spurs only if they win and Tottenham lose or draw. Spurs can take 3rd spot if they win and Arsenal lose in which case a Newcastle win would secure the Toons 4th spot ahead of Arsenal in 5th. Simple.

The Premier League Title Race & Relegation Battle

Bolton will be relegated unless they win and QPR Lose. Mathematically if QPR draw but Bolton win, Bolton would need to beat Stoke by a 9 goal margin to stay up on goal difference. Man Utd need to net 1 more point than Man City to win. Finishing level on points would almost certainly see them finish second unless they bettered Man City’s goal difference by beating Sunderland by 10 clear goals where Man City only wins 1-0. Mathematically it is not possible for Man Utd to get relegated. Shame.

So who are you Betting on in the Premier League on Sunday?

With one of the closest finishes of the Premier League ever in prospect for Sunday Afternoon at 3pm, the bookies are having a field day with the number of  decisive ties which will all be played simultaneously on one Mouth-Wateringly Footie packed Sunday afternoon in May. With the title possibly, (or rather likely, if the odds are anything to go by) to be decided on Goal Difference for the first time ever in the history of the League, looking further down the table, certain key positions came so close to being  potentially decided in the same way.

Take Liverpool and Everton, battling out for 7th spot. Nobody would have thought before the Chelsea game that the Reds might catch up on the toffees’ goal difference, but following the scintillating 4-1 victory over Cheslea, Liverpool came within one goal of equalling Everton’s Goal difference. Just one missed penalty away.. and so tantalisingly close to being able to beat Everton to 7th spot with just a draw should Everton fail to win on Sunday.

A Draw is Not Good Enough For The Reds

Liverpool therefore need to win away against Swansea and hope that Everton only draw or lose at home to Newcastle in order to maintain the dubious Merseyside bragging rights.  So what are the odds at the time of going to press if you wanted to back Liverpool to finish 7th. Paddy Power currently have  a Liverpool win at 11/10 and Everton to draw at 12/5. Double up on these two outcomes and a £10 bet will return you in the region of £71 or just over 6-1. If you would rather back Everton to lose at home to Newcastle, then the odds deteriorate only slightly at 21/10, which with a Liverpool win would pay out at around £65. Either way, if you have a strong feeling that Liverpool might do it, then you could back both options and get a return of around 2-1?

Andy Carroll Is Now Earning His GIant Status

The Odds on Newcastle Finishing 3rd with Spurs & Arsenal in 4th & 5th is a decent enough treble at 49 to 1?

The other near miss in the league and a more crucial place which could have also been decided on Goal Difference is the battle between Arsenal & Spurs (and Newcastle) for 3rd and 4th spot. Exactly like Liverpool, Tottenham are just one agonising goal behind their closest league rival, Arsenal, but based on their head to head results, drawing level with the Gunners would not have been enough anyway.

Toons can still get 3rd if the Gunners and Spurs slip up

As it stands then, Newcastle still very much have a shout on who finishes 3rd, albeit a win is needed against Everton if they are to have any say at all.If Spurs draw or lose at home to Fulham then Newcastle will take 4th spot, that is if you assume Arsenal don’t slip up and come back from West Brom on the last day with nothing, in which case a win for both Newcastle and Tottenham would see them finish in 3rd and 4th place respectively, with Arsenal slipping down to fifth. The permutations are numbered, but the likelihood is that if Arsenal get a point at least, then Newcastle will only obtain the coveted final Champions League slot proper (4th) by winning and hoping that Spurs don’t. Even if Arsenal lose Newcastle must win to take either 3rd or 4th, but if both the London teams lose, then Newcastle will take 3rd ahead of Arsenal with a win at Everton.

Some Interesting gambles on the cards.. Fulham & Newcastle Win Double pays at 24-1? … Newcastle win, Spurs Draw and Arsenal lose Treble pays out approx 44-1

So let’s take a look at the betting here, as there are some very interesting scenarios and a combined odds of almost 25/1 is available if you back Newcastle to win and Spurs to lose at home to Fulham.  Odds presently on Fulham beating Spurs are at approx 7-1. Double this with Newcastle beating Everton 21/10, and you’ll get just short of £250 back from a £10 double on these two outcomes. Not bad considering the Liverpool v Everton Scenario comes nowhere close at barely 5/1 for the reds to overcome the Toffees? Even if you backed Newcastle to win and Spurs to draw you could still get better than 8/1?? If you fancied a tricast of Newcastle 3rd (win) – Tottenham 5th (draw) – Arsenal 4th (lose) then this would pay out a massive £448 for a £10 wager – just short of 44-1. Bank on both Spurs and Arsenal losing for the same finishing positions with Newcastle winning and this payout would be in the region of 21/10 x 7/1 x 15/4 = £497.80 return on a £10 treble.

Man Utd to Draw and Man City to Lose pays a massive but unlikely 66-1

Let’s move on to the last two scenarios, the drop zone and the Title race. QPR seemingly have the upper hand as they are currently a full two points ahead of Bolton and are way superior in terms of Goal difference. This means that Bolton can win 8 nil away to Stoke but if QPR get a draw then the Trotters are still destined for the championship, however, with QPR being embroiled in the main feature of the day, and the title fight, what chances do they have of staying up? Surely a defeat is on the cards at the hands of Mancini and his men? Well, consider this. If QPR do manage a draw versus Man City, this doesn’t mean Man City have lost the title. They will still be champions providing Manchester UTD don’t beat Sunderland away.

No Longer Yoda.. more like Yadda Yadda Yadda..

Ferguson illustrates where 2nd Place is in The League?

Chances are that UTD and City will win, which will decide the title in Man City’s favour, but there is one scenario within this set of games which carries some seriously high odds. I will come onto that in a moment, but to Back Bolton to overcome QPR is not a great bet even if you think it more feasible. If QPR lose and Bolton win, the combined double on these outcomes will only pay you at just over 2/1. The interesting bet, if any Liverpool fans could bring themselves to lay it, is if QPR beat Man City and Man United Draw to take the Title by a single point. The odds on this happening are 14/1 for a QPR win and 7/2 for a draw between Man Utd and Sunderland, a double which would pay out at a massive 66-1, even better than the treble of Newcastle winning and Arsenal & Spurs losing which will pay out at around 49/1.

If Doubles and trebles are not your thing and you prefer scorecasts and correct score, first, last goalscorer betting then Paddy Power have a great offer on for the last day of the season and will refund ALL losing scorecast, correct score, first and last goalscorer bets in any game where there is a goal scored in the last 5 minutes. You also get a free £20 bet when you deposit a £10.